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LBMA forecasters split on price of gold in 2018

Topics [ silver bullion prices gold bullion prices ]

The London Bullion Market Exchange’s latest Precious Metals Forecast Survey has split analysts on the likely direction of precious metals in 2018.

The annual forecast brings together a group of experts to predict the high, low and average price of gold, silver, platinum and palladium during each 12-month period.

This year 34 participants were asked for their views. Notable factors that divided the group’s projections included the level of U.S. real interest rates, the likely impact of geopolitical factors and the pace of global economic growth.

For gold, the different opinions prompted forecasts in a trading range of US$390 – from a low of US$1,120 per ounce to a high of US$1,510 per ounce.

With similar divergences in the other estimates, including a silver low of US$14 rising to a high of US$23, the LBMA said we could be in for “a dramatic year in precious metals”.

The extremes at either end of the forecast, however, effectively cancelled each other out with average price predictions for each metal in 2018 little different from those actually seen in the first half of January.

If the combined wisdom plays out, the average price of gold across 2018 would be US$1,318, with silver averaging at US$17.81.

In the 2017 forecast survey analysts predicted that the average gold price for the year would be US$1,244. As it transpired, they were just 1% out with actual average price of US$1,257.

Read the full survey and what the individual analysts had to say about precious metals prices in 2018.

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