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Are Analysts Overly Pessimistic About Gold And Silver in 2015?

Topics [ gold prices silver prices ]


Following on from Thursday’s post on the LBMA Forecast Survey, below we look at how accurate the bullion market analysts as a group have been, as we did last year. Generally they are quite accurate when you take the range of their forecasts into consideration, with only two years where the actual yearly average was outside the forecasted range.

This year there is less consensus than 2014 on both the gold and silver outlook. The range between highest and lowest forecast is much wider for both metals, indicating a diversity of views and portending a volatile year ahead. The gold forecast sees little change in the yearly average with the most pessimistic seeing a low of $880. The most optimistic only sees a high of $1525, which I think will disappoint most gold investors after the last couple of years’ worth of declining prices.

Whereas gold’s lows and highs are evenly spread around the average, for silver the LBMA forecast tends to the pessimistic compared to 2014’s performance, with the yearly average forecast or $16.76, the lowest low forecast being seen at $10 and the most optimistic at $22.

So on average for the year the analysts see gold flat and silver as underperforming. While this is not encouraging for investors, they can take heart from 2013 where the analysts as a group were overly optimisic – maybe 2015 is where they are overly pessimistic and the monetary metals outperform to the upside.

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