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Response To Bix Weir Questions

Topics [ depository services store bullion ]

TREASURY VIEW

Bix Weir of Road to Roota left a comment to my previous post. This post answers his questions.

1. Metal Leasing

That section of the website is a copy of text on the old Refinery website when it was a standalone partnership between Perth Mint (40%), Newmont (40%) and Johnson Matthey (20%). The Refinery’s Treasury did some of those activities but now that we fully own the Refinery business, we don’t get involved in Leasing or Funding Facilities (there is some small consignment stock), which is why it is zero in our current annual report. Important point is that even if we did have a request from a miner or other customer to borrow gold, we would first lease in paper gold from a bullion bank and absolutely not use Depository client metal. We cannot stress this point enough and it is an overriding consideration in anything we do.

We will get that part of the website updated to explicitly confirm that any such “services” will not use Depository metal and will be funded from borrowing in metal so there is a clear segregation.

The prior annual reports do show a outward lease, but the notes to the account say that this was to the old Refinery partnership (AGR Matthey). We were prepared to lend Depository client metal to the Refinery even though it was a separate legal entity only because:

a.   We owned 40% of AGR Matthey.
b.   We had representation on the AGR Matthey Board of Directors and Audit Committee.
c.   The above gave us detailed insight into their activities and veto if we thought what they were doing was against our clients’ or Government’s interests.
d.   We had explicit undertakings from them that they would not onlend any metal lent to them, it could only be used to support their physical refinery operations.

2. Delivery Problems

Jason’s article makes a lot of outrageous conclusions, particularly in respect of the fact that we are running some type of ponzi scheme. The idea that we would NOT buy gold when clients buy from us just makes no logical sense – we are a Mint, we need physical gold for our business to operate, not paper money. I responded to a similar question in this personal blog entry for those who wish to look at this issue in detail.

Jason’s key misunderstanding was that he held the view that our Unallocated metal was held in the form of a stockpile of bars, waiting to be shipped. This is not the case. Unallocated metal is backed, but by operational metal. Some of that may be in the form of finished coins and bars, but most is held in semi-fabricated form as work-in-progress and raw gold (400oz or 1000oz bars). As a result, if every Depository client wanted to take delivery, there would be a delay while we turned all our metal into finished product as the coin presses and other processes can only work so fast, but ultimately, every client would get his/her gold.

That is why we wrote about a “3 staged approach” on our website that you quoted in your article. This was done before we had a bull market in gold, well before anyone even thought about the idea of there being stresses in worldwide gold market. Our objective was to be clear to clients what the risk was with Unallocated (because you don’t get something – 0% storage fee – for nothing). That risk is one of delivery delays if everyone wants physical. However, importantly, this is not the same as the risk that we don’t have the metal. Delivery delays result from production capacity limitations, not a limitation or absence of underlying metal (in our case anyway, this does not apply to all unallocated offerings from other organisations).

Having said that, we admit that in the past some deliveries to Depository clients were delayed and that is was not acceptable. We would note that the number of complaints that Jason got were said to be in the order of 20 to 40 and he was never clear about how many of those were specifically about Depository clients (to whom we have an obligation to deliver physical) versus cash customers. Compare those numbers to the total number of Depository clients at the time, which were around 6,500. That does not constitute “many, many”.

This is not to excuse any delays to Depository clients. It resulted from a lack of coordination between our Depository, retail shop and wholesale coin divisions. During that crazy time the wholesale division took orders from distributors for large quantities of coins which locked out our production capacity for a few months, without being aware of the impact of that on Depository’s obligations. As a result of that event, we have improved internal communication and instituted internal policies to prioritise Depository orders.

3. Times of Distress

The extreme “times of real trouble” you mention will put holders of partially or totally unbacked paper gold at risk. The comments above show that we do not run that sort of paper metal business. We, like our clients, are very risk adverse. We run the Depository business on the expectation that we will get a large number of sell orders or collect orders at any time.

In the scenario of large and consistent physical conversion by our Unallocated clients, our response will be to stop or heavily restrict all sales of coins and bars to non-Depository customers and direct our entire production capacity to servicing Depository client collection requests. As we delivered the gold, we would replace the gold needed for our processes with leased in gold. We are confident we will be able to handle such extreme market conditions.

We agreed that physical gold and silver are counterparty risk free, but we also understand there are investors who are not comfortable with personal storage of their precious metals. That is why we created the Depository business and take our responsibility to protect their metal seriously.

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11 Comments

  • January 15 2011

    Sam says:

    Bron,

    If metals from unallocated accounts are mostly held in semi fabricated capacity (400oz and 1000oz bars), and a delay in delivery would be purely due to coin and bar production capacity, as you have stated.

    Then don't you think that the Perth Mint owe's it to their clients, to go on record and state what your production capacity is?

    This will improve transparency to unallocated account client's so that they can determine the maximum time it might take to receive delivery of physical metal in the event that there was a rush for physical.
  • January 18 2011

    Bron Suchecki says:

    Sam,

    All unallocated client holdings are fully backed by physical metal held in a variety of forms including bars and coins which may be either fully or partially manufactured. Should a client wish to take physical delivery of their unallocated holdings in certain sizes bars or coins, these may have to be specially manufactured if they are not held in stock. Clearly there is a timeframe required to undertake the fabrication, and this will vary depending on production capacity and the level of demand for specific physical product. However, to quantify this timeframe is a very difficult question.

    Consider a simple example of a coin press with a capacity to stamp 10,000 coins a week. If clients wanted 1oz coins, then that machine would have a capacity of 10,000oz. However if clients wanted 2oz coins, suddenly that machine can satisfy 20,000oz of collection requests a week – and the time it takes to meet collections is halved.

    Consider also that coin production capacity is not just about a coin press. The entire process involves melting, casting, rolling, cutting out of the blanks (blanking), annealing and various surface treatment processes. The machines involved (each which have their unique capacities) include melting furnaces, breakdown mills, pickling plants, weighing machines, scrubbers (to collect evaporated gold), vacuum furnaces and coin presses. The interplay of each of these on some theoretical “capacity” is complex to say the least.

    We then have to consider that bullion bars have a much less complex production process than bullion coins. This could dramatically affect estimated capacities and thus time. For example, in the case of silver, will clients want 100oz bars or 1 kilo coins? If the bars, then our capacity would be 3 times as much just looking at it from a ounce point of view. Further, say bars could be made two times as quick as a coin. In that case 100oz bars versus 1 kilo coins could result in a timeframe difference of 1 month versus 6 months. A huge margin of error.

    Then one has to consider the rate at which Depository clients would request collection. It is not likely that all 15,000 will suddenly wake up one morning and want delivery. Some in fact may just want to sell up for money. How those redemption requests come in will also affect the timeframe – 2000 a week would result in collections spanning 2 months.

    The point of the above discussion is not to avoid the question, but to indicate that it is not a simple question. In discussing it with senior management, their view is that it would be actually misleading to attempt to make some assumptions about the product mix and rate of requests to derive some “maximum time”, because small errors in the assumptions are likely to result in large changes in the timeframe.

    Yes, transparency would be good, but transparency that is misleading is not transparency at all.

    London Good Delivery 400 oz gold bars and 1,000 oz silver bars will be available for delivery within the terms of the Depository agreement. In the event that clients want delivery of their holdings in sizes other than these, delivery is dependent on manufacturing lead times if the required product required is not in stock. The Perth Mint considers the scenario of rapid and continued collection requests to be highly unlikely but in such a case would commit all of its available  production capacity to meeting its delivery obligations. If you are still uncomfortable with this commitment or the Mint’s inability to quantify it (for the reasons discussed above), then you could consider allocated storage.

    Regards,

    Bron

  • January 19 2011

    Go says:

    Dear Perth Mint,

     

    There are many people unfortunately in the Australian Society (predominantly) and overseas (connections via Aussies) who has not better job to do in their life’s than discredit precious metal dealers. Every day they only have one goal, what I can do to discredit the reputation of this precious metal dealers. Unfortunately, these days it has been Perth Mint. There is also one notorious forum website hosted in Australia who is well known to batter precious metal dealers.

     

    The bigger the precious metal dealer, the attacks (people writing nonsense) grow more.  There is no point in writing big letters to convince them or others, as they will never change. The best solution is to take these hypocrites to court, even if you have to spend money on legal fees.

     

    All the best Perth Mint.

  • January 23 2011

    Sam says:

    Hi Bron,

    Thanks for your detailed response, as expected you did not answer a simple question which could easily be determined by looking at your own book.

    I am not sure why you would respond in such a way, it's a little suspicious given that you have the information on hand.

    Your response assumes that you do not know what clients have on the books with the mint in unallocated form.

    Obviously the Perth Mint knows exactly how many 1oz, 2oz, & 10oz coins are in unallocated storage. The Perth Mint also knows how many 1kg bars, 100oz bars etc are in unallocated storage. The Perth Mint also knows what the breakdown is of gold, silver, and platinum.

    The above information is more than enough information to determine the maximum timeframe to mint ALL products and provide an estimate timeframe to clients so they can make a better informed decision on a worst case scenario basis where everyone wants to take delivery of physical.

    Afterall, the whole purpose of owning precious metals is the protect ones wealth. Failure to provide transparency is a sure sign of a ponzi scheme.

    So now if you take the same approach and do some detailed analysis based on your production capacity, keeping in mind that you do in actual fact know what is on the books, could the Perth Mint determine the maximum timeframe to mint all product in unallocated accounts?

    I am not trying to discredit the Perth Mint "Go", however anyone with their right mind should be asking themselves the same questions rather than taking things at face value and been ignorant.

    Thanks,
    Sam

  • January 25 2011

    Bron Suchecki says:

    Sam,

    Quote: "Obviously the Perth Mint knows exactly how many 1oz, 2oz, & 10oz coins are in unallocated storage. The Perth Mint also knows how many 1kg bars, 100oz bars etc are in unallocated storage."

    When you say that above information is more than enough to determine the maximum timeframe then it tells me there is some confusion about how the Perth Mint's unallocated is operated. Some clarification:

    1. Unallocated clients only hold ounce balances, they do not hold or specify particular sizes of "unallocated" coins or bars. As a result, we have no information on exactly what physical form our clients may request in the future.
    2. I said that SOME of the metal backing unallocated is in the form of finished coins and bars but that MOST of it is not.

    Because we don't know what physical forms our clients may want and most of the metal backing their unallocated is not in those forms ready to deliver, it is not possible to accurately determine a timeframe. This was the point of my last response.

    The delivery timeframe question is two sided - you have to know what assets "are on your books" but you also have to know the exact nature of the liabilities on your books. We only know the latter in respect of a total number of ounces, not potential physical forms.

    You are either ignoring this lack of information on our part (which is what results in us being unable to estimate a timeframe) or are operating under a misunderstanding that unallocated clients in some way pre-indicate what physical form their unallocated is/should be backed by.

    If the above doesn't make sense then let me know as it means I'm not communicating the practical operational issues we face very well. I think I'll have to come up with an appropriate analogy to explain the issue, which is eluding me at this time.

    Regards,

    Bron
  • January 25 2011

    John says:

    Hi Baron ............ !

    With regard to the Silver bullion, I have been told that the Mint does not have any 100 oz bars for delivery for those who wish to take delivery.

    I have been told by operators at the desk that there will be no 100 oz silver bullion for delivery until mid March, is this true ?

    Is there a shortage of silver bullion for delivery [ 100 oz ]?

    Is it going to the popular numismatic market of the Mints ? no-one can give me an answer and I would like to know as forward planning is something I guess we all like to do.

    I have as yet seen no announcements to this regard and would have thought it would be significant enough to have something in regard to it on the website, I might have missed it but I could see no reference.

    Appreciate any update / news you could tell me in this regard

    Thanks

    John ............... !





  • January 27 2011

    Go says:

    Hello Perth Mint,

    It seems that this thread is getting interesting day by day. What a lot of nonsense when people impeach Perth Mint is involved in a Ponzi Scheme.

    I used to think that “fruit flies” had the “smallest brain” in the world. I was terribly wrong!!!!! After reading this post, I am sure it’s now seen in Humans!

  • January 27 2011

    David Kerbey says:

    Hi John

    Regarding supply of 100os Silver bars….. these bars are just suffering a temporary shortage due to demand and general production pressures. Our online store has some available today but restocking probably wont occur until March.  I can confirm, however that Perth Mint Depository does have stocks of 100oz silver bars. These are not available for sale to online customers as they are kept in reserve by Depository to ensure it can meet its legal obligation to satisfy client collection requests.

    Once again, production  is the difficulty here, not supply of silver. Silver is in strong demand from the “popular numismatic market of the Mints”, but that doesn’t affect our ability to supply it in a particular form – 100oz bars.

    We will keep Perth Mint Bullion clients informed about developments in the supply of both 100oz and Kilo silver bars – via the website and email newsletter.

    Regards,

    David Kerbey, Retail Manager

  • February 01 2011

    Richie says:

    Hi Bron

    Thanks for your efforts in clarifying Perth Mint's position in regard to Bix's article.  

    I've often wondered what proportion of your working inventory is made up the unallocated metal in customers' accounts, and what would happen if the amount of unallocated metal exceeded your inventory requirements?  Would you simply carry it as excess inventory?

    cheers


    Richie
  • February 03 2011

    Robbo says:

    David,

    thanks for your time reponding to the various issues around Unallocated. I have found it very useful and comforting in respect of my own holdings. Keep up the good work.......

    regards
  • February 03 2011

    Bron Suchecki says:

    Richie,

    If the amount of unallocated did exceed our inventory, we would carry the excess. As our unallocated balances and inventory requirements fluctuate, we would need some excess as a buffer to manage that difference.

    However, as there is no storage fee on unallocated and any the excess would give us additional storage and insurance costs, we cannot allow too much excess to build up.

    The logical result of this is that at some point we will stop accepting new unallocated clients and additional purchases of unallocated by existing clients. We are not at that point yet.

    Regards,

    Bron
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