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This blog discusses The Perth Mint's bullion coins and bars, providing information about our latest designs, mintages, sales volumes and sell outs. On a broader front, we share relevant research and opinions for anyone interested in gold and silver bullion investing.

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LBMA forecasters split on price of gold in 2018

Topics [ silver bullion prices gold bullion prices ]

The London Bullion Market Exchange’s latest Precious Metals Forecast Survey has split analysts on the likely direction of precious metals in 2018.

The annual forecast brings together a group of experts to predict the high, low and average price of gold, silver, platinum and palladium during each 12-month period.

This year 34 participants were asked for their views. Notable factors that divided the group’s projections included the level of U.S. real interest rates, the likely impact of geopolitical factors and the pace of global economic growth.

For gold, the different opinions prompted forecasts in a trading range of US$390 – from a low of US$1,120 per ounce to a high of US$1,510 per ounce.

With similar divergences in the other estimates, including a silver low of US$14 rising to a high of US$23, the LBMA said we could be in for “a dramatic year in precious metals”.

The extremes at either end of the forecast, however, effectively cancelled each other out with average price predictions for each metal in 2018 little different from those actually seen in the first half of January.

If the combined wisdom plays out, the average price of gold across 2018 would be US$1,318, with silver averaging at US$17.81.

In the 2017 forecast survey analysts predicted that the average gold price for the year would be US$1,244. As it transpired, they were just 1% out with actual average price of US$1,257.

Read the full survey and what the individual analysts had to say about precious metals prices in 2018.


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How Accurate Is The LBMA Precious Metals Forecast Survey?

Topics [ silver bullion prices gold bullion prices ]

RESEARCH AND ANALYSIS

At the beginning of each year the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) polls a range of respected precious metals analysts in the large banks and independent consultancies for their forecasts for metal prices for the coming year.

The recent LBMA price forecast has just been released, with contributors “predicting gold and silver prices to remain broadly flat during 2014”. Their average forecasts for the price during 2014 are:

Gold - $1,219, ranging from $1,067 to $1,379
Silver - $19.95, ranging from $16.37  to $23.94
Platinum - $1,490, ranging from $1,300 to $1,650
Palladium - $775, ranging from $660 to $863

Historically, the LBMA forecast has been quite accurate. The charts below show the actual average gold price each year against the lowest and highest forecast for the average annual price, as well as the average of the forecasts.

For both gold and silver the actual average price has fallen within the range of the lowest and highest, except for 2013. With gold the contributors appear to be more accurate as the forecast is quite close to the actual average price.

There is less accuracy in the case of silver, particularly over the past three years.

This year the low/high range is quite tight for both metals, leaving little room for error. Precious metal investors can only hope that the contributors repeat their poor 2013 forecast accuracy – to the upside that is!



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Monthly Sales - December 2012

Topics [ gold minted bars silver bullion prices gold bullion coins ]

STATISTICS

Total ounces of gold and silver sold by The Perth Mint* in December 2012 as coins and minted bars

Gold (Au): 49,581.81

Silver (Ag): 449,529.58

Compare with last month.

(*excludes Depository and Perth Mint Shop.)



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LIBOR Scandal May Stimulate Gold Buying

Topics [ silver bullion prices gold bullion prices ]

IN THE NEWS

Gold sold off Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke failed to hint at new stimulus measures despite recent signs of a U.S. economic slowdown.

"While easing may be expected, investors are still saddled with the uncertainty of not knowing exactly when such an order will be given," Edward Meir, metals analyst at INTL FCStone told Reuters.

Analysts at GoldCore underlined their belief that QE3 remained inevitable. They said “gold may also receive safe haven buying from the LIBOR (London Interbank Offered Rate) scandal,” the deepening rate rigging crisis afflicting the banking sector. Read the full story here.

Gold futures in New York settled down US$18.70 to US$1570.80 an ounce. Silver futures dropped 0.8 per cent to US$27.095 an ounce.



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‘Superspike’ One Scenario For Gold

Topics [ silver bullion prices gold prices ]

BLOG WATCH

Peter Krauth: “gold will reach $2,200/oz. in 2012 … longer term … gold prices will eventually hit $5,000/oz in a ‘superspike’ .”

Deutsche Bank: “Gold prices to reach $1,600 an ounce in the second quarter and $1,800 in third … to touch $2,100/ounce in the fourth quarter of this year.”

Royal Bank of Scotland: “cut its gold forecast for this year by 1%, to $1,725 a troy ounce … increased its silver price forecast for 2012 by 3% to $33.00/oz.”

Download today’s full Blog Watch (pdf 224kb) for more reviews, including:

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Technical analyst Brian Bloom has an article utilising Fibonacci semicircle arrays and point and figure charts to conclude that “the charts are suggesting that the uncertainties in the gold market will be resolved this coming week.”

PESSIMISTIC GOLD TRADERS

The average gold timer is now allocating about a seventh of his gold-oriented portfolio to shorting the market, according to Marc Hulbert’s analysis.

THREE GOLD SCENARIOS

MoneyWeek reports on three scenarios for gold developed by Capital Economics, including their disaster scenario where the gold price spike to "as high as $5,000".

IS THE BULL MARKET OVER?

The answer is NO, according to investmentscore.com.



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Blog Watch For 3rd April 2012

Topics [ gold bull market silver bullion prices sell gold invest in gold ]

BLOG WATCH

Casey Research on when to sell

Hard to go past an article with this tagline: “Revealed – the simple economic indicator that will tell you when it's time to sell gold.

For the busy, here’s the punch line: “When real rates turn positive, especially above 2%, it may be time to sell. We'll have to see what's going on in the world at that time; if there's financial chaos, the fear factor could cause gold to depart from this historic pattern.”

It is another good piece by Casey Research and worth a read because negative real interest rates are a significant long term driver of gold prices.

Download today’s full Blog Watch (pdf 190kb) for more reviews, including:

Clive Maund - Technical Analysis

Clive considers gold’s recent trading behaviour to be one of consolidation and sees two alternative explanations of the pattern, both bullish.

Mark Faber on Bloomberg TV on gold

Mark has a different assessment. However, he’s not selling his gold!

Dominique de Kevelioc de Bailleul (Beacon Equity Research) on silver

On volatility, Dominique thinks silver investors should “get over it, or get out!”

James West (Midas Letter Money) interviews Rick Rule and Eric Sprott

There’s an important element in this interview which refers to gold’s role as insurance for your investment portfolio.

Richard Karn (The Emerging Trends Report) on Australian gold producers

Richard has been travelling around Australia researching the the gold sector - and sees a lot to like.


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