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Gold and silver correct as markets look to vaccine news

Topics [ gold market gold analysis silver market ]

Precious metal prices dropped sharply toward the end of November, with the USD price of gold falling by more than 6% across the month. This was spurred by investor optimism regarding the development of COVID-19 vaccines which helped drive global stock markets to all-time highs. 

What happened in precious metal markets in November?

• The gold price fell by more than 6% in USD terms in November, ending the month trading at USD 1,762.55/oz.  
• In AUD terms, gold dropped 11% to end the month below AUD 2,400/oz. A sharp rally in the value of the AUD contributed to the pullback.
• Silver also declined by 6% during November, with the gold silver ratio ending the month at 79.
• The precious metal pullback occurred despite weakness in the USD (-2.18%) and falling real bond yields, developments which are typically supportive of bullion prices. 
• Global equity markets rose by more than 13%, their strongest monthly gain ever, as optimism regarding COVID-19 vaccines drove risk-on appetites. 
• Cryptocurrency markets also roared higher in November, with Bitcoin rising by 40%, ending the month near all-time highs just below USD 20,000 per coin 
• Gold is now sitting at a much healthier level from a technical perspective after the recent pullback, with multiple tailwinds to support prices as we head toward 2021.

Full monthly review – November 2020 

Gold and silver prices fell by more than 6% during November, with the two metals ending the month trading at USD 1,762.6/oz and USD 22.20/oz respectively.

Since trading at their calendar year highs in August, which was also an all-time high in nominal terms for gold, the two metals have pulled back by 15% (gold) and 23% (silver). 

This has had an inevitable impact on demand, with flows into precious metal ETFs including Perth Mint Gold (ASX:PMGOLD) turning negative for the first time this year.

Since the US Presidential election, investors have well and truly embraced a risk-on position. Some see signs of a mania building, with warning signs including: 

• An almost record monthly increase in the MSCI All World Index, which rose by 13% in November.
• The S&P 500 price to sales ratio climbing to 2.69, 14% higher than its reading in 2000, and more than 200% above the lows seen during the depths of the GFC.
• The Dow Jones index climbing above 30,000 points for the first time ever.
• Huge inflows into equity markets, with analysis in the Financial Times suggesting more money flowed into equity market funds in the week following Pfizer announcing successful COVID-19 vaccine results than in any week in at least two decades.  
• The price of Bitcoin soaring approximately 40%, closing in on a new all-time high above USD 20,000 per coin. 
• CNN’s Fear and Greed index flipping from showing extreme fear a month ago to showing extreme greed. 
• A 13% increase the S&P Goldman Sachs commodity index as markets price in higher rates of growth as we head toward 2021. 

The primary cause of the optimism that has swept across investment markets in the past few weeks has been the positive news regarding the development of multiple COVID-19 vaccines. Barring any mishaps, these look set to roll-out in the weeks and months ahead. 

COVID-19 vaccines have not been the only factor though, with markets warming to reassurances from central bankers around the world who have promised not to take away the monetary punchbowl anytime soon, even if growth bounces back faster than expected.

Financial markets have also reacted positively to the news that ex-US Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen is soon to take over as US Treasury Secretary. This bodes well for what is shaping up as an inevitable merging of fiscal and monetary policy in the years ahead. 
Below, we delve into three areas of relevance to precious metals investors and explain why we remain optimistic about the outlook heading into 2021, especially after the much-needed correction gold and silver have been through these past few months. 

Real yields and the USD didn’t help gold this time

Some precious metal bulls will have been troubled by the fact that gold sold off aggressively during November, despite a fall in real yields and a decline in the USD. 

As per the table below, real yields fell by roughly 10 basis points across the maturity spectrum in November, with the decline driven by both a minor decrease in nominal bond yields themselves, as well as slight uptick in inflation expectations. 

Source: The Perth Mint, United States Treasury

Typically, one would expect gold to rise as real yields fall, as this reduces the opportunity cost of investing in the precious metal, but that did not happen during November. 

Alongside the decline in real yields, the USD index (DXY) fell by more than 2% in November. Many investors see gold as an anti-USD play. History does bear this out to a degree, though the relationship isn’t as simple as USD up, gold down, or USD down, gold up, as some would have you believe. 

This is demonstrated in the table below, which looks at monthly returns for the DXY and the USD spot gold price in environments where the DXY is rising and falling. 

Note that we have measured the relationship between gold and the DXY over three time periods, all ending in November 2020:

• From 1971 when the United States formally abandoned the gold standard;
• From the end of 1999 when the secular bull market in precious metals started; and 
• From the end of 2015 when the cyclical correction in gold, which saw the precious metal fall below USD 1,100/oz, came to an end. 

Table: Gold and the USD

Source: The Perth Mint, Reuters

The table is telling us that:

• The USD is as likely to rise as it is to fall in any given month, with the average move to the upside and downside quite similar. As an example, since 1999 DXY has risen in 123 months (+1.78% average gain) and fallen in 128 months (-1.74% average loss).
• Gold tends to prosper far more in falling USD environments than it suffers during rising USD environments. As an example, it has delivered average gains of +2.43% in months the USD has fallen since 2015, yet only suffered average declines of -0.50% in months that USD has risen. 
• While gold does tend to fall when the USD rises and increase in value when the USD falls, it doesn’t always behave in this manner. For example, from 1971 onward, gold has increased 66% of the time the USD falls, meaning there is a more than three in 10 chance gold will fall in months that the USD falls. 

This is exactly what transpired in November 2020. 

Optimism regarding COVID-19 vaccines and the record rally in risk assets which pushed global stock markets to all-time highs combined to push gold lower, even though the USD and real yields were falling. 

Gold to silver ratio – the big picture

Silver is often seen as a high-beta version of gold, outperforming to the upside and underperforming to the downside. It also displays significantly higher price volatility, owing to its quasi-monetary, quasi-industrial metal status.

In April 2020, the gold to silver ratio (GSR) peaked just above 110, meaning one ounce of gold could buy 110 ounces of silver. By August, the GSR had fallen to 71,  when gold was hitting all-time highs, before rising back toward 80 by the end of September. 

Despite the sell-off in precious metals in the two months since, the GSR has essentially remained static, ending November just below 80. 

For precious metal bulls, the fact that silver has held its ground relative to gold over this period, and during November in particular, is an encouraging sign that precious metals are approaching the end of the corrective cycle that began in mid-August. 

A look at the GSR over a longer term also tells an important story when it comes to precious metals, and developments in the economy and financial markets more broadly. 

The chart below highlights movements in the GSR, as well as the USD spot gold price since December 1999.

Chart: Gold to silver ratio and USD spot price of gold

Source: The Perth Mint, Reuters

While gold has risen from under USD 300/oz to over USD 1750/oz during this period, the GSR has moved in a wide range. It ended 1999 sitting at 53, hit a low of 33 in April 2011, and then peaked above 110 earlier this year.

The table below highlights the gold and silver price, as well as the GSR at some of the key points over the past two decades. 

Table: Gold and silver prices plus GSR

Source: The Perth Mint, Reuters

The above chart and table, which highlight the nine years of silver price underperformance relative to gold leading into April 2020, also neatly captures four of the primary economic and financial market trends that have dominated the post-GFC era. 

These include the bear market in commodities, the record outperformance of financial assets vs hard assets, low rates of economic growth in the developed world and minimal inflation levels as measured by increases in CPI.

Any one of those developments would be expected to hold back the performance of precious metals, especially silver. The fact that all four were at play, and so persistently for most of the past decade, explains the extreme underperformance of silver relative to gold. 

Looking forward, the chart also makes it apparent that silver looks set to outperform gold, with markets beginning to price in expectations of higher economic growth and inflation.

Should that come to fruition, it will likely be supportive of the entire precious metals complex.

Textbook correction over as market looks toward 2021?

Another positive sign for the precious metal market is the unwind of speculative froth that had been building as gold roared above USD 2,050/oz in early August 2020. 

Back then, investors were piling into gold ETFs at a record pace and media coverage was overwhelmingly bullish, with some analysts issuing price targets of USD 3,000/oz and above.

As prices have fallen, the mood of the market has become far more subdued, while investors have begun lightening their gold exposure. Long positions in the gold futures market, for example, are now 25% lower than they were in late July.

We also saw outflows from gold ETFs in November (the first month in 2020 that total holdings declined), while technical readings like RSI had fallen into oversold territory by the end of last month. 

Importantly, the correction that we have seen in the gold price since the highs in August has brought the precious metal all the way back to its 200-day moving average (200DMA). 

This is something we had suggested may occur based on historic market patterns. The past 20 years of market data made it clear that every time the gold price had risen so fast that it was trading at 20% or more above its 200DMA, as it was in August, a correction soon followed.

Those corrections on average typically saw the gold price fall by 10% or more over a period of a few months, often trending back to, or just below, its 200DMA.  

The chart below, which tracks data to the end of November, illustrates this. It displays the USD spot price of gold as well as how far the gold price was trading above or below its 200DMA on any given day.

Chart: USD spot price of gold and deviation from 200DMA

Source: The Perth Mint, Reuters

Based on this data, and the market patterns it highlights, we can say that the 15% pullback that we have seen in the USD gold price since August so far represents a textbook correction that has played out perfectly from a technical perspective. 

This is not to say definitively that the lows seen in late November will mark the bottom of this corrective cycle for gold. Nevertheless, it is reasonable to observe that at this stage there is nothing in the charts or recent price action that suggests the primary bull market uptrend is over. 

With the market now sitting at a much healthier level, and with the recent investor overexuberance gone, now would appear to mark a safer entry point for medium to long-term investors looking to initiate or add to their precious metal positions. 

With monetary and fiscal policy likely to remain loose for years to come, and financial markets at or near record highs, there are no shortage of tailwinds for gold and silver as we head towards 2021. 

This will likely prove especially true if there any further COVID-19 flare ups or hiccups in rolling out vaccines.

Past performance does not guarantee future results.
The information in this article and the links provided are for general information only and should not be taken as constituting professional advice from The Perth Mint. The Perth Mint is not a financial adviser. You should consider seeking independent financial advice to check how the information in this article relates to your unique circumstances. All data, including prices, quotes, valuations and statistics included have been obtained from sources The Perth Mint deems to be reliable, but we do not guarantee their accuracy or completeness. The Perth Mint is not liable for any loss caused, whether due to negligence or otherwise, arising from the use of, or reliance on, the information provided directly or indirectly, by use of this article. 

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Troy ounce vs ounce: What’s the difference?

Topics [ buy gold online gold trading ]

The precious metals industry uses the troy ounce as its basic unit of measure, even in countries which have adopted the metric or imperial systems. 

While there is a difference between a troy ounce and the more common avoirdupois (imperial) ounce, the precious metals industry often uses ‘ounce’ and the abbreviation ‘oz’ rather than ‘troy ounce’ and ‘ozt’. So when you see ‘ounce’ and ‘oz’ used in the context of precious metals, assume the reference is to troy ounces.

We explore the origins of this ancient system - and why it’s still in use as the standard gold measurement today. 

Did you say champagne?

The troy ounce has its origins in the city of Troyes, located in the Champagne region of France, an ancient city with a fascinating history. For example, the Knights Templar emerged there in the 12th century. 

Standing at a hub on an extensive network of Roman roads, the city became a “formidable place for commercial exchanges”.

In the Middle Ages it hosted the largest and most important of the famous Champagne Fairs. Merchants from across Europe gathered in the city to trade their wools, silks, leathers, furs, spices, and, of course, precious gold and silver wares.

The Counts of Champagne, who prospered from this activity, introduced rules governing the efficient operation of the Fairs. It is said that the system of measuring gold, silver and gemstones first used in their region took its name from the city of Troyes.

 Troyes, ancient city in the Champagne region of France. Source: CC

The troy system was in widespread use as the basis of several European monetary systems by the end of the 12th century. It reached Britain under King Henry II, who reigned from 1154-1189 – the so-called Angevin monarch who also ruled large territories in France.

English pennies, worth 1/240th of a pound sterling, also weighed 1/240th of a troy pound of sterling silver. With 20 ‘pennyweights’ the equivalent of one troy ounce, there were 12 troy ounces in one troy pound.

Despite the rise of avoirdupois weights (16 ounces = one pound) for everyday goods, it has remained customary to weigh and price precious metals in troy weights. 

Troy pounds and pennyweights fell from favour in the 19th century, but even when British legislation abolished other old weights and measures in 1963, the troy ounce survived for trade in precious metals.

As common as grain

The troy ounce and the avoirdupois ounce have in common the grain, the smallest unit of mass in everyday use. But they’re not the same. 

At 480 grains, the troy ounce is heavier than the avoirdupois ounce, which weighs 437.5 grains.

In metric terms, the troy ounce weighs 31.1034768 grams. The avoirdupois ounce is slightly less, at 28.349523125 grams.

When referring to large quantities (such as annual mine production), the industry often uses metric tonnes as the unit of measure as it produces smaller and more manageable numbers. 

For example, 80,376,867 troy ounces equals 2,500 tonnes. Some prefer to use ‘millions of ounces’ (abbreviated to ‘moz’) to avoid confusion as to whether the ‘ton’ referred to is a metric ton, Imperial (long) ton or US (short) ton. 

For silver, traders can use the Indian unit of measure Lakh (or Lac) which refers to 100,000. For example, a trade for 1,000,000oz would be referred to as 10 Lakh.

Precious metal weights are usually only recorded to three decimal places of accuracy, or to one thousandths of an ounce. An exception to this is a gold London Good Delivery Bar, which is rounded down to the nearest 0.025 of a troy ounce (silver London Good Delivery Bars are rounded down to the nearest 0.100 of a troy ounce).

The table below lists conversion rates between a troy ounce and other common units of mass.

Buy gold and silver bullion 

The weight of gold and silver bullion bars and coins made by The Perth Mint are all specified in troy ounces. 

If you’re considering buying precious metals for the first time and are not entirely sure what this means, here’s what you really need to know:

• The weight and purity of every ounce of Perth Mint gold and silver is guaranteed by the Government of Western Australia.

• We offer a range of sizes from 1oz (troy ounce) to 1 kilo gold and silver coins and bars.

• Buy in-store from our bullion trading desk or online 24/7 for delivery.

• Alternatively, store your precious metals in our network of central bank-grade vaults.

Learn more about gold and silver weights and measurements here.

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Gold bullion sales bounce on launch of new Kangaroo coins in November

The Perth Mint shipped 84,158 ounces of gold coins and minted bars in November 2020, an increase of 119% on the previous month and 55% ahead of November 2019.

The strong performance was the result of a significant increase in demand from The Perth Mint’s international wholesale customers, particularly in Germany. According to Neil Vance, General Manager – Minted Products, demand also benefitted from the release of the 2021 Australian Kangaroo Gold Bullion Coin Series mid-way through the month.

“The launch of the Kangaroo coincided perfectly with the onset of lower gold prices in the back half of November, presenting our wholesale and retail clients with a great opportunity to secure the new coins,” he said.

Demand for Perth Mint silver bullion remained robust. Like last month, however, manufacturing capacity was affected by unavoidable repair and maintenance to machinery in the factory. In a month further impacted by a two-day stock take, silver shipments were a marginal 8.9% lower at 1,119,269 ounces compared to October, but ahead 8.9% compared to a year ago.

Ounces of gold and silver sold in November 2020 as coins and minted bars
Gold (Au): 84,158 oz   |   Silver (Ag): 1,119,296 oz

NB The above chart shows total monthly ounces of gold and silver shipped as minted products by The Perth Mint to wholesale and retail customers worldwide. It excludes sales of cast bars and other Group activities including sales of allocated/unallocated precious metal for storage by the Depository

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How common is it to own gold as a private investor?

Topics [ gold analysis gold bars gold bullion coins ]

When looking at demand in the global gold market, most analysis will focus on the breakdown between private investment demand (for bars and coins as well as ETFs), central bank buying, jewellery demand and industrial demand.

The following table breaks down above-ground stocks as at the end of 2019 across the key sources of demand.

Source: World Gold Council

As clear from the above, there are multiple sources of gold demand. At a household (or private sector) level, while gold is obviously known for its financial value, it also has emotional and cultural significance that varies from country to country. 

As such, different people across the globe buy gold for different reasons, often influenced by an array of socio-cultural and macro-economic factors. 

This article examines how widely gold is owned, looking at jewellery demand and private sector investment demand for bars and coins in some of the world’s largest countries and regions. 

Private investment demand for gold

The chart below highlights total private sector investment demand for gold bars, coins and jewellery during 2019 in tonnes in India, Europe (excluding Commonwealth Independent States (CIS)), the Americas, the Middle East and Greater China. 

Source: World Gold Council

China and India clearly lead the way when it comes to private demand, accounting for 40% and 30% respectively of the demand seen across the above regions as a whole. 

It is worth noting however that the above table does not account for gold ETF demand, which is overwhelmingly driven by investment in North America and Europe. 

This can be seen in the table below, which shows the change in total gold ETF holdings in tonnes across key regions from the end of 2018 to the end of 2019.

Source: World Gold Council

If this ETF demand were captured in the data set that the above chart was drawn from, the disparity between India, China and the other regions would be less stark.

Another way to examine gold’s widespread ownership is seen in the chart below. It looks at gold demand on a per capita basis, which effectively equalises for the huge populations that live in China and India relative to other parts of the world.

Source: World Gold Council

When looked at this way, it is clear that on a per capita basis, demand for gold bars, coins and jewellery is far more even than the analysis based on pure tonnage would indicate. 

Demand in the Americas is broadly in line with that seen in India, while in Europe and the Middle East, per capita demand exceeds that seen in China and India. 

Takeaway for investors

The key takeaway for investors is that ownership of gold is incredibly well dispersed around the world, with households and investors in all regions owning large amounts of the precious metal. 

They also continue to provide ongoing demand for gold, which in turn should help support prices in the years to come. 


Above-ground stocks, World Gold Council
Gold Demand Trends Q3 2020, World Gold Council

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‘Fractionals’ make bullion coin investing more affordable

Topics [ buy gold coins buy gold bullion online ]

Bullion coins made from 1oz of gold make sense for many investors.

But there are denominations made from less than 1oz.

These coins are known as ‘fractionals’ - and they provide investors with a number of practical benefits.

Because they contain smaller amounts of precious metal, fractional coins are sold at lower price points. For those on a tight budget, they make accumulating gold bullion possible for a more modest outlay.

Some people invest in gold to protect themselves against the worse-case scenario - a total collapse in the financial system. This type of investor probably believes fractionals would be useful for barter if paper currency suddenly became worthless.

Disaster scenarios aside, the other main benefit offered by fractionals is flexibility when it comes to converting precious metal back in to cash. For example, a portfolio containing exclusively 1oz gold coins means that a minimum of 1oz must be sold – currently worth more than AUD 2,500.

Sellers who want to redeem smaller amounts of gold could have achieved a more suitable outcome had they diversified through a range of fractional coins.

Australian fractional coins

Fractional bullion coins made by The Perth Mint from 99.99% pure gold feature exactly the same design theme as the full 1oz sizes and each is issued as Australian legal tender.

Each fractional coin receives the same meticulous attention to detail in order to produce an exquisitely detailed product. 

The internationally sought-after Australian Kangaroo and Australian Lunar III Gold Coin Series are struck in fractional weights of 1/2oz, 1/4oz and 1/10oz. Also available in these sizes, the Lunar Series includes a more unusual 1/20oz option.

Our latest fractional offering is the 2021 Australian Kookaburra 1/10oz Gold Bullion Coin, only the second of its kind struck at The Perth Mint. 

With the 2020 coin officially selling out, this release featuring a superb new design is set to be equally popular among stackers. 

Learn more.

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What are currency code standards?

Topics [ invest in gold spot price simple guide ]

Currency codes are the three-letter alphabetic codes that represent currencies used throughout the world. 

Chances are you would be familiar with some major currency codes without explicitly knowing the mechanics of how they work – for instance ‘USD’ is the universally recognisable currency code for US dollars which is the base currency for foreign trade.   

Every country-specific code has a corresponding three-digit numeric code which is identified by the International Organisation for Standardisation (ISO), a non-governmental organisation which provides standards for manufacturing, commerce, technology and communication.

Why are currency codes important to gold?

Modern foreign-exchange (forex) markets trade by quoting prices in a range of currencies.

Forex prices are determined by supply and demand, meaning a higher USD price reflects a higher number of people buying it. Conversely, if demand for a currency, such as the Australian dollar (AUD), drops, those buying USD will get less in exchange for their AUD.

Currency codes are related to all markets and are especially relevant to gold as it is priced in USD.

However before currency codes were introduced, gold was the standard benchmark upon which all currencies were measured.

A brief history of the gold standard

The first system of currency was directly linked to the value of physical gold with countries agreeing to convert paper money into a fixed amount of the precious metal. 

This made gold the initial base currency for world markets. 

The development and formalisation of the gold standard began between 1696 and 1812 as the introduction of paper money posed problems. Yet it wasn’t until 1821 that England became the first country to officially adopt a gold standard. 

The international gold standard emerged in 1871 following its adoption by Germany. By 1900, most developed nations were linked to the gold standard, the price of which was fixed in England. 

Throughout this period all trade imbalances between nations were settled with gold, giving governments strong incentives to stockpile the precious metal for more difficult times. Many of those stockpiles still exist today.

However the gold standard was eventually abandoned in Britain in 1931, replaced with a fiat system. America followed suit in 1933 and by 1973 all remnants of the gold standard system had been dissolved.  

Dollar symbols in a range of colours

With the value of currency no longer based on any physical commodity but instead allowed to fluctuate dynamically against other currencies on the forex markets, a new way of delineating currencies was required.

Rather than currency value being pegged to gold, it was now globally measured against the USD after America emerged a global leader following World War II.

Hence in 1978 the ISO standard committees established standardised currency codes which are used to designate forex prices.

Currency code pairs

Each currency is assigned a three-letter code which is used in global markets. There are hundreds of currency codes however the most commonly traded and well-known are: 

• USD = US dollars
• AUD = Australian dollars 
• GBP = Great Britain pounds (sterling) 
• EUR = Euro
• NZD = New Zealand dollars 
• CAD = Canadian dollars
• JPY = Japanese Yen 
• CHF = Swiss francs
• KRW = Korean won

Codes are determined by the ISO 3166 currency code and the type of currency. For example:

• USD – the US coming from the ISO 3166 country code and the D for dollar.
• CHF – the CH being the code for Switzerland in the ISO 3166 code and F for franc.

With foreign exchange markets trading off the USD, the USD is in many cases known as the base currency. It can be paired with a quote currency which is the currency it is being converted into.

Known as currency code pairs, these are used to determine how much money you can exchange for 1 USD.

For example, USDCAD is the currency pair used to convert 1 USD to Canadian dollars (CAD). This is known as a direct currency pairing and will tell you how much CAD is needed to buy 1 USD.
Conversely, AUDUSD is the currency pair used to convert 1 AUD to USD. This is known as an indirect currency pair and will tell you how much 1 AUD will allow you to buy in USD.

This is important for gold traders as all commodities are measured against the USD.  

Hence the price of the USD will impact the price you can get for the commodity you are trading, whether or not you are buying in USD or in other currencies.

In Australia, gold prices are quoted in AUD which is converted from the USD rate. This is done by calculating the gold price as quoted in USD by the AUD exchange rate. 

It’s important to note that the price you pay for an ounce of physical gold will not be the direct conversion rate. 

Buyers are also paying for fabrication and manufacturing costs and in many cases purchase and administration fees which are absorbed into the quoted price when buying from a retailer. Different margins apply depending on the product being bought. 

This is known as the spot price.

Regardless of whether you are trading solely in AUD, CAD or any other currency, there is no denying the USD has direct impact on how gold is priced in modern markets.

Avenues of trade

The Perth Mint has a dedicated trading desk manned by expert traders operating five days a week for over the phone trade via its Depository Program.

For those wanting the freedom to buy and sell 24/7, our Depository Online program offers just that. 

Our GoldPass app is ideal for anyone comfortable with digital technology who wants to trade in gold through the convenience of their smartphone. 

Alternatively, if you would prefer to invest via a brokerage account on the ASX, our ASX-listed Perth Mint Gold (PMGOLD) tracks the spot price of gold in AUD.

View our full range of investment options here.  

ISO currency codes, ISO

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