Earlier this year Bron Suchecki suggested the LBMA’s Precious Metals Forecast Survey was an effective gauge for anyone pondering the likely direction of precious metal prices. After analysing annual predictions since 2007, he said “historically, the LBMA forecast has been quite accurate.”
Every year, contributors are asked to consider the likely trading range of gold, silver, platinum and palladium, and predict an average price for each metal during the coming year.
The LBMA certainly makes sure that the annual Survey reflects some of the best thinking available. Before being accepted onto the panel, analysts are judged on “a combination of relevant expertise, the analytical and forecasting ability of the individual concerned, as well as the reputation and standing of the institution they represent.”
Now the LBMA has published a league table revealing which of these individuals have been the most successful over the years.
“This is the precious metal market’s equivalent of the English football Premiership where three clubs, Arsenal, Manchester City and Chelsea are currently vying for top spot,” it said. (In fact there are four - Liverpool has made a late dash up the ladder).
As soccer players focus on silverware in the form of the Premier League trophy, contributors to the LBMA survey can win gold. Four 1oz gold bars are awarded each year to those forecasters whose predicted average comes closest to actual average price for gold, silver, platinum and palladium.
Ross Norman (Sharps Pixley), Philip Klapwijk (Precious Metals Insights) and Rene Hochreiter (Allan Hochreiter) are the form players right now with an impressive five 1oz gold bars each. Each one has raised the bar, so to speak, when it comes to precious metal price forecasting! It will be interesting to see how they go in 2014.
There’s plenty more talent coming through the ranks, however. For more insights into the best LBMA Survey’s best performers, click An Historical Review of the LBMA’s Precious Metals Forecast Survey.